Water scarcity under climate change : impacts, vulnerability and risk reduction in the agricultural regions of Central Asia

Abstract

This doctoral dissertation is inspired by the major climate change risk to human security in many parts of the globe, namely water scarcity. The analysis is built upon the concept of vulnerability in order to explore those factors, which shape the climate change risk in the agricultural regions of Central Asia. More specifically, using Khorezm region of Uzbekistan as a case study, the thesis looks into the agro-ecological, socio-economic and institutional aspects of vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main methods applied include participatory research (which represents a key informants survey and a focus-group discussion) and a statistical analysis (which represents descriptive statistics and a multi-criteria analysis). The major scientific outcome of this work is the development of holistic vulnerability assessment method for agricultural systems, applicable to explore policy-relevant scenarios. This dissertation also contributes to the knowledge of climate risks in Central Asia, by analysing the impacts of severe water scarcity, identifying the determinants of vulnerability, and exploring the role of the institutions in reducing the vulnerability to water scarcity in Khorezm. This thesis further translates the results into policy recommendations for the reduction of the vulnerability to climate change and water scarcity in Uzbekistan.